Dublin posted another impressive year of growth this year, with traffic increasing by 8% to 18.4m; UK and domestic traffic dragged down the overall performance, the highlights of which were Europe and t/a flights.
Given the route plans already announced, particularly by Ryanair (whose increase alone should be sufficient to bring DUB over the 20m mark this year, not to mention new routes by EI and various other carriers), 2006 looks like being very good too.
However, there seems to be three major issues on the horizon:
- Terminal capacity; this is probably the least of the problems in that decisions have been taken (albeit like extracting teeth from a feral crocodile) and hopefully Pier D will get under way;
- Runway capacity, I think, will be the big issue. Last year, there were 182,000 movements; there's no figure available this year, but even if it increases by 5% (less than the pax no.) it will still be over the 190k mark and this year will almost certainly see it exceeding the 200,000 mark - probably quite handsomely. Now, what's with the parallel runway? Haven't heard much about this and it seems that the schedule has slipped to about 2012-13; at the rate growth is running at the moment, it's quite possible that DUB could be at the limit for a single runway (remember 11/29 will have to be decommissioned as part of the 10L/28R works) and will have to start turning away traffic. This issue needs to be pushed forward.
Of course, the increased congestion means that the chances of extending the runway (such as they were) are zilch, so DUB is stuck with the shortest runway of any major airport in Europe for the next 6-7 years, and that's certainly going to curtail some long haul growth opportunities, in particular ...
- Cargo. An Taoiseach and three of his happy band (and lots of business leaders) are off to India, to build up trade links, as part of the govt's Asian growth strategy. Great news and it's about time India and Asia generally were recognised as markets for trade and tourism. BUT ... with the new T2 blocking off cargo parking stands for large aircraft and any extension of the cargo terminal, the airport's opportunities to develop cargo handling capacity are going to be limited; cargo figures for DUB have been flatlining around the 150,000t mark, well below potential. There doesn't seem to be a recognition by the DAA of the importance of this issue and given that Mr. Cullen recognised DUB's position as part of the state's critical infrastructure, they're going to look mighty stupid when it emerges that growth potential is being held back by a lack of freight and runway capacity within the next few years.
Time for pitchfork mode again ...
