Re: Bird Flu scare on plane
Rainboe
A new strain of flu did appear in the late 1960's, but 1968-69 not 1966.
A little historical perspective:
Known historical flu pandemics:
412 BC (reported by Hippocrates)
A number of epidemics in the Middle Ages
1510
1580 - started in Asia, in 6 weeks it afflicted all of Europe. Death rates were high; 9,000 of 80,000 people died in Rome; some Spanish cities were "nearly entirely depopulated".
During the 17th century, a number of epidemics were reported
1729-30
1732-33
1781-82
1830-31
1833-34
1889-90 (Russian Flu): killed about 1 million.
20th Century:
Three pandemics have occurred, caused by an H1, an H2, and an H3 strain. 1918-19 (Spanish Flu): H1N1 variant. killed 500,000 in USA and global mortality may have been as high as 100 million.
1957-58 (Asian Flu): H2N2 variant: killed 1 million.
1968-69 (Hong Kong Flu) H3N2: killed 1-2 million.
So, ten pandemics have been recorded in the past 300 years, with 10 to 49 years between events.
Flu evolves and mutates continually. Thus the strains that sit in the avian population can and do change to be able to infect humans. The recent mutations mean that the newest strains can infect people, but do not transfer easily. However, if they were to gain that ability (perhaps by combining with another flu virus that can) then a pandemic will occur unless it can be contained. It is the latter that would lead to the need for travel restrictions. We are one step from this mutation - it may or may not occur this time, but will sooner or later.
This is very hyped at the moment, but the threat is real.
Dr Dave (for info I am the Wilson Professor of Hazard and Risk at the University of Durham, UK).