doggonetired
I agree that this is a great way to exchange views on topics like this.
I also agree about the odds not changing. My point was that whilst there is the same chance of finding a diversion closed after a go around as there is of the original destination closing, it is a situation which is seldom experienced and therefore the exposure to those odds is rare. Regularly committing to a particular airfield, as is very often the case carrying planned fuel with at most 15mins contingency into Lhr exposes the pilot far more often to the possibility of an airfield to which he/she is committed closing.
I seem to remember that some years ago the CAA issued a circular advising pilots operating inbound to Lhr and Lgw to carry at least an extra 20mins. fuel for unforseen holding in order to prevent the kind of events described by Heathrow Director.