civ 101
I am not in aviation, never have been, neither am I an economist, nor an expert in computer modelling.
However, I have knocked around for over sixty years, travelled a lot by air in that time and have interested myself in civil aviation purely from the perspective of an amateur. I have prefaced my post thus because you asked for the opinion of aviators.
Governments have to make future estimates on all sorts of things from economic growth to the number of civil servants needed in future years.
Some things, like the number of pensioners vis-à-vis workers in the year 20xx can be predicted fairly accurately. Others such as the likely demand for air travel in 2015 or 2030 are clearly much less precise. The likely variables have to be assessed and a prediction made.
It seems that in this particular model the glaring unknown, the price of oil, has been forecast very optimistically. This single factor will have more bearing on the long term health of civil aviation than anything else. It seems likely that demand for travel will continue to grow significantly but not if the price of air tickets reaches the stratosphere (my metaphors will only be aviation-linked
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$25 a barrel does seem a very low figure, especially as the insatiable demand for oil by such new world economic superstars as China will keep oil prices relatively high, if not sky high in the years to come.
An associated argument as far as the UK is concerned is how much increased air travel is necessary for the good of the economy of the country, the government’s major reason for wanting to push ahead so vigorously with its airports expansion plans.
Even a recent CAA report suggests that the massive increase in passenger journeys in recent years on the budget airlines is for leisure travel abroad, mainly by the wealthiest 25% of the country, and that this trend is likely to continue so long as air travel is affordable, with doubtful benefits to the overall economy of the UK. See link.
http://www.traveldailynews.com/new.a...category_id=53
Forecasts can of course be under-estimates. I note you come from Bristol as I do. In my possession are leaflets and other documents produced by Bristol Airport in 1993 that looked forward to the next ten years. In 1993 one million passengers used BRS and the ten-year plan projected 2 million by 2003. In fact, by then the airport had reached 3.8 million, and is now past the 5 million mark. The reason for the under-estimate is quite simple: no-one then could have foreseen the massive impact that lowcost (budget) airlines would have on the scene. So forecasting future demand is a very imprecise science although perhaps it is really an art.
Estimates of future growth must be made and it is equally damaging to the country as a whole to get them too low as too high. The White Paper wants clear plans from airports for the period up to 2015 and indications for the 15 years after that. Perhaps the wisest course might be to slow down the time span a bit.