TOPPROP,
I wonder whether you would consider raising your topic in a separate thread. I would like to respond but much of my post would not relate to NCL, therefore I feel I oughtn't to take up space in this thread.
10 DME ARC,
You are correct in saying that NCL is bigger than BRS, although not by much. CAA provisional stats for the rolling 12 months ending October 05 show NCL handling 5,148,934 pax and BRS 5,108,269.
I regard the two airports as very similar. Apart from the current NCL top management team having previously been in the leading positions at BRS, the airports serve a broadly similar catchment size and the easyJet route between the two is, by some way, the busiest in passenger number terms between two English provincial cities.
Newcastle probably holds an advantage over BRS in having a longer runway, better land communications and the absence of LHR one hundred miles along the M4, although NCL does of course have air connections with the capital which BRS doesn't have.
Since the CO BRS-EWR route commenced there have been all sorts of rumours on its success or otherwise. First it was doing poorly, then it had improved. CO said they anticipated 75,000 pax in the first year. CAA stats seem to suggest that thus far it is on course to at least equal this figure, even taking into account normally lower winter loadings and the reduction to 5 rotations per week during the winter months.
What we don't know of course is the yield and whether the 75,000 target has been reviewed following fuel cost increases since the route commenced last May.
Some have suggested the AA decision has knocked back NCL's transatlantic chances by years. Unless economic conditions worsen markedly in the world, leading to wholesale route cancellations and schedule reductions, surely NCL must still be next in line for a UK scheduled connection to the New York area.
Finally, if for whatever reason CO pulled their BRS-EWR route (and I certainly hope they don't), would not BRS be in a far worse position as to future transatlantic operations than NCL is at present?