what analysis (mathematical modelling perhaps?) has been done to asess the effectiveness of different combinations of weapon systems in an anti air scenario with different types of attack?
Its a bit dated now, but post Falklands, Grey Funnel Line concluded the following regarding Sea Dart capabilities against
subsonic low flying aircraft.
Probability of successful flight: 75%
Probability of successful fuzing: 90%
Probability of single missile hit: 51%
The latter means salvo firing against aircraft to achieve a satisfactory kill probability. 23 years later, you could realistically improve those numbers somewhat against aircraft, but the figures regarding subsonic ASM's are an order of magnitude worse and a supersonic ASM even worse still.
Data on SS-N-26 Yakhont:
Russia is offering the NPO MASH Yakhont-M land attack super-sonic cruise missile with its KONDOR-E radar targeting satellite for export. The Yakhont flies at tree top level to avoid radar detection. The missile flies at speeds in excess of Mach 2. In an extended range mission, the Yakhont climbs to 46,000 feet before diving to below 50 feet as it closes to within 22 miles of its target. Terminal attack speed is reported to be .4 miles per second. The Yakhont can be air launched using the ALFA system, sea-launched from its container/canister or fired from a shore based mobile launcher called BASTION. Yahont can also be fired from a standard torpedo tube from conventional submarines.
OK. We have determined that Sea Dart has at best a marginal capability against this type of threat, anyone care to guess how Phalanx will cope with a 9,000lb sea skimmer travelling at .4 mile per second?
Surely the elimination of the launch platform is the only viable option?