One of the dangers of this kind of speculation is that it assumes a constant increase in the demand for aviation worldwide, and rarely considers historical variations and hiccups. Like politicians, statisticians like to feel that the current trend is the way it will always be.
There is no doubt that the demand for aviation in China and India will increase substantially in the short and medium term. However, the provision of infrastructure in both countries lags the airline entrepreneurs' ambitions, and will limit the rate of expansion considerably. I have a growing conviction that environmental concerns will limit expansion in the developed world quite a lot more than government predictions currently assume, and will catch up with the developing world in the not too distant future.
Both of these factors will, I believe, produce a very different airline expansion curve than those currently predicated by many 'expert' observers. However, the training industry will likely expand its capacity to allow for the most optimistic predictions, as it has in the past; this, of course, will prove fatal for some schools!
Over and above these factors, these predictions assume continuing, and even (in some studies) accelerating growth in the world economy. I am by no means convinced that this will be the case. Aviation is particularly sensitive to quite minor variations in economic confidence, and the results can be catatrophic for many in the industry. The reactions to consumer spending reining-in in 1987, 1991 and 2001 are just three of many downswings that have affected the industry quite disproportionately in the past. There are several indicators that suggest the world economy
may soon enter a period of stagnation and, depending on the outlook for oil and its potential substitutes, could go into recession in two to three years' time. It's happened before and will again.
What does all this mean? Probably that the training industry will, once again, gear up to maximum output just at the time when the bottom falls out of the market. For those who get in in the years preceding the downturn, it won't be too bad. For those graduating, or entering training at or after the downturn, life will be tough - just ask those guys who were in that position in 2001!
It might happen next year, it might not happen for 5 years - but it will happen. When it does, yet again the stories of potential pilot shortages will be viewed with a withering eye...
Scroggs
posted 29th November 2005 17:09 Scroggs, I don\'t know how long you\'ve been in this business, but I certainly have first hand knowledge of major airlines (Britannia, BMI etc) cold calling flying clubs asking if any of the instructors or members are getting close to having the hours for a CPL (old system), sponsorship available. If that doesn\'t constitute a shortage then I\'m not sure what does...
That\'s good to hear, and will be encouraging for those currently in a position to be picked up by these airlines. However, at the recruiting end I can assure you that we are still overwhelmed with applications from people we will never use. Doesn\'t look like a shortage from where I stand, though I acknowledge that it\'s getting more difficult to find experienced A340 pilots...
Scroggs