PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Shannon stopover to be phased out by 2008
Old 14th Nov 2005, 19:30
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akerosid
 
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CO seems to me most likely for ORK-EWR, although unfortunately, because the new deal only starts from next November, it'll probably be Summer '07 before it happens. Not quite sure if 763 could do nonstop from ORK due to runway length, but there again, even if it could, I don't see DL being quite as innovative as CO on new routes.

Unfortunately, the key concern now is the Open Skies talks between the EU and US, which are not going at all well. They're still hung up on the whole LHR thing, which is pretty frustrating; basically, it comes down to airline ownership -v- LHR. BA seems to be pressing for the right to buy all of AA and I can tell you that hell will freeze over (or Pat Robertson will vote Democrat) before that happens ... which, I suspect is what BA wants. LHR-US is BA's most important sector and I strongly suspect they want to scupper or stall any possibility of new US carriers (or bmi) on that route as long as possible.

However, even if talks fail, I think the agreed deal might be able to form the basis of a transitional period, as there is scope for talks between the US and other EU countries, outside the current talks (as long as the resulting agreement doesn't put any other country at a competitive disadvantage). Since our bilateral is the most counter-productive of any EU country, I think it might be able to stay on. It doesn't really serve anyone's interests for it to be lost. Let's not waste more time than necessary.

As to aircraft, if the new deal comes into effect from next November, I recall that AC may have A340s it might want to get rid of; sure, 340s aren't the first choice, but they should be relatively easy to integrate. Another possibility, I think, would be NW. It is in serious trouble (like DL), but has several A330s on order for next year. Now, could it be persuaded to defer these? OK, PW powered, but hey, like the 340s - better than a poke in the eye ...

Finally, with the EI L/H order due soon, I would be very surprised if there weren't arrangements made for interim aircraft. Both potential aircraft - the 350 and 787 - won't be available until 2010-12, so the interim proposals may be pretty important.

Lots to play for, but let's hope this week's talks end up with something positive. How frustrating to be held back by something of no particular interest to Ireland.

I might also add, on the new aircraft front, it\'s widely expected that EK will replace some/all of its A340-600 orders for A350s (or else risk losing deposits). This means a significant number of new Airbus delivery positions for 2007+. Obviously, they needn\'t be taken as A340-600s ...
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