WATABENCH
I managed to get hold of a copy of the full draft master plan (160 pages with appendices – much easier to read than trying to download the full version from the Net).
A runway extension is not being considered until 9 million annual pax have been reached – forecast around 2015. Even after that they are lukewarm. They give various options for extending it, with the resultant positives and negatives, but conclude that (even after 9 million pax), “The improvement in performance that might be achieved by extending the runway is relatively small in comparison with the costs and the potential environmental impact.”
The draft master plan suggests there is (and will be during the period the plan covers, up to 2015 in detail and to 2030 in outline) limited demand for regular scheduled long haul from the Bristol catchment, and identifies New York (already served), Washington, Dubai and one other US destination “such as Atlanta” as the required destinations.
There is also further demand for long haul services by charter airlines, and various projected passenger figures are given regarding long haul from the airport in general.
The airport seems to be relying on new generation aircraft that will make a runway extension unnecessary. The draft plan mentions the B 787. The airport has been told by Boeing that one variant is expected to have a range of 9,000 km from the existing runway.
However, the next generation of aircraft is expected to have longer wingspans and at present the clearances between the taxiway and Winters Lane (by the golf course) could not accommodate the B 787. This could be overcome in the short term by the construction of turning circles, but consideration might have to be given at some future point to moving Winters Lane to the north. I don’t like golf so that wouldn’t worry me.
BTW, according to the list I have, the EXT runway is only 72 metres longer than BRS (2083 to 2011), although it is also at a lower elevation. How much difference does 72 metres make? BRS say they could extend the current runway by 140 metres within existing airport land and without the need for airport control of Felton Common, although the A 38 would have to be dropped into a tunnel.
This is one of the options mentioned in the draft plan. The others are extend the runway by 389 metres; extend it by 239 metres with a 150 metre starter strip; extend the runway beyond 389 metres onto the Common. I suspect the last one would cause apoplexy in some quarters.