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Old 29th Sep 2001, 07:16
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lackov
 
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Question

Devils advocate response!

The reasoning behind an impending SQ bid could be twofold. The first reason would be the AOC issue mentioned on other threads. If AN is bought before they go belly-up, then the AOC is still valid, however once the company is liquidated, the AOC lapses. This alone would still not explain why SQ would want to acquire billions in debt for an AOC that can be re bought/built for a few million at worst. Time, however, is of the essence, and should SQ take the firesale option the would have to wait until AN is dissolved (a few weeks at best), and then, and only then, begin the task of constructing a new AOC from scratch (and we all know how long that takes). All this while QF and DJ continue to quietly cement their new positions in the market. If SQ waits this long it may be too late. This would mean that if SQ still wanted to cut in on the Australian market, their options would be limited to a QF takeover (I'll leave your imagination to the parliamentary and shareholder fireworks that would erupt should this even be so much as mentioned), or a bid for DJ, who has already announced their intention to float publicly (though if the right money is on the table I'm sure Dicky would bite). Whilst DJ would be far and away the most attainable of the two, they dont have anywhere near the level of infrastructure that AN or QF have scattered around the place. Do they pay way too much to get the show on the road quickly, or play "beat the bomb" and risk losing the lot? I believe that it really is a case of being caught between a rock and a hard place.
The other reason is because, like most airlines at the moment, SQ is hurting from, amongst other things, reduced loads, and need to find more people to get on aeroplanes to ensure continuous viability. AN might offer a very useful short term feeder in an effort to convert a percentage of the (swinging voter style) travelling public to a new airline, long term, once things simmer down a bit. ANZ cut AN adrift once it 'became redundant', unfortunately it is not inconceivable that SQ could do the same once they were done. Depending on how much of AN's debt is in $AU, it might be a good time to buy, considering the level of the 'Aussie Peso'.
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