Swh,
I'm not the press... I made a mistake of writing what I wrote without explaining it further in the far east forum, and you mentioned the fake here... However, that was that...
I think you had a valid point raising concerns thanks to the idiots who circulated the fake Helios photos but in this case others would find the picture as an informative description on where the aircraft crashed (yes, without the crash wreck being shown).
A picture of the actual crash site by a friend failed to materialize tuesday as it was closed due to the presidential visit (he landed there before the crash happened so no crash site photos from approach from him)... I guess by the time someone I know flies into Medan on a 05 approach, the wreck would have been cleaned up.
Enough on the pics... now with the investigation.
The NTSC announced last night that it found the aircraft engines' compressor blades had deformed. They're now sending the blades to Indonesian Aerospace to see what caused it and whether it caused a significant thrust output reduction which caused the aircraft to fail to take off.
A friend at the airline wrote: When I last used PK-RIM the EGT for the number 1 engine, with max reduced EPR of 1.96 or 93% N1 (OAT30C) the EGT reached 610C. The limits for the JT8D-15 is 630C (acceleration), 620C(t/o), 580C(MCT).
MES is a high load station. For the morning schedules, the passenger loads are high and same with the cargo. With the required fuel MES-CGK of about 10.6 tons. If taxi fuel is estimated at 600kgs, so the Gross Weight on impact (assuming accordance to weight limits and that MTOW had been reached) is 56.7 tons.
I shall not judge whether MES station likes to "manipulate" the cargo data. However, I once limited myself to a maximum regulated TOW (maximum weight to enable the aircraft to take off after factoring in aircraft limits, runway, and climb segments) to 50 tons. Normally with 50 tons gross weight, the aircraft should be able to taxi with idle thrust. However that time, the aircraft required significant thrust to taxi. I took the personal conclusion that the aircraft was over 50Tons. Since then I have taken a "safety margin" for myself and always reduce 500kgs from the maximum possible weight of the table.
Related to the weights above, I am quite sure that RI091 would have taken off with an EPR of more than 2.00 (>95% N1), hence the EGT would have exceeded 620C.
Guess we have to wait till the FDR has been deciphered.
Only public comments by the NTSC are:
1. Not terrorism
2. Black Boxes recovered.
3. No abnormalities in ATC conversation.
4. Weather as cause unlikely, can only be done by FDR analysis of aircraft trajectory.
5. Fuel problems (fuel lines? fuel quality?) has been issued.
6. Compressor deformation has been quoted and is investigated further.
7. Those who have taken pieces of the aircraft, please return them to enable the investigation to be conclusive. (Unfortunately, since it crashed into a densely populated areas, a lot of people have taken pieces of the aircraft away to sell as scrap... The NTSC has now appealed for the pieces to be returned so that hindrance to the investigation can be minimised.)
The media frenzy have started here... This morning one paper wrote that 3 tons of Durian was loaded and not in the manifest... There are other things been thrown in the air from a cellphone causing the crash to things to a freak gust, no claiming that the houses 300-500m from the runway end caused the tragedy... *shaking my head*
On a less serious note... SWH, Since when did I become PK-RAR ?
Btw, that photo with the "lokasi crash" was supplied by a local to Medan who visited the crash site himself... I hope no one's questioning whether the actual crash is within the "lokasi crash" circle or not.
PK-KAR