A local resident posted following message on our flight simulation forum:
"all of the survivors sat in row 20.
witness on the ground said that he saw the plane lift off just a few feet above runway but failed to continue climb. apparently the aircraft went into stall with nose pitching up high. aircraft hit ils localizer at the end of the runway, then airport perimeter fence before smashed into residential area.
rumors spread that the aircraft probably overwighted, because it's common practice in medan that the loadmaster often load the aircraft beyond mtow and fake the report to pilots. but this time, it was probably too much overweight. "
While this report is to be viewed with some caution (third hand or even more in between the chain), the observation looks very conclusive and precise possibly describing a CG problem, not the usual witness babble.
Simon