Not always applicable, but in most cases there is a simple mathematical formula for determining the total risk to the airplane:
Start with the Total number of plebs on board multiplied by the number of days since desperate journo's had anything to write about = S. This is then multiplied by the AMSL value the event occured =H
This is then divided by the number of recent "plane hits orphanage, millions die screaming" stories in the media in the last 3 months = I. Finally the resultant value is measured against the elapsed time from the plane landing to the first regional newspaper getting hold of the "story = T.
Although some components may be inverse functions in the Southern Hemisphere, or negative values when crossing the International Date Line, it is fair to say that the true risk value is always of function of the S, H, I, and T components as reported in the story.