Actually, I did have the probability (likelihood) of the accident occurring in my basic formula. And if it was 1 in 1000 chances per flight of the malfunction or whatever occurring, then you would then have to multiply it by the number of flights expected by the type of aircraft in question per annum. Then you'd be up around the $500mil again!...My point was that an airline accident with multiple fatalities costs society far more than most care/dare to think.