Yes, ALLMCC, of course ot is more than load factor which determines profitability. It is also more than overall yield. It is that combination of overall revenue and overall cost which determines the level of loss or profit. What concerns me about the Flybe position ids that it is blatantly competing in the low fares market and overwhelmingly advertises price in its blizzard advertising at least in the national papers. That means that price is likely to be the public image of the company now. I know that both EZY and RYR feature price just as strongly and both of them also sell seats at prices that are sometimes well in excess of their direct competitors. But what they have both seen recently is that yields have been going down in actual terms It must be the same in Flybe’s case.
The real difference between Flybe and, say, RYR and EZY is that Flybe has a very high proportion of short sectors. It does not matter what deal Flybe did for the Q400’s (and I am sure that that was excellent) or how cheap they are to operate, the fact remains that there is one arrival and one departure for every sector. This always makes very short sectors much more expensive to operate. Engine costs are higher on short sectors as well.
Flybe have a very high proportion of new routes (new routes usually equals immature routes) on which yields can be expected to be low.
They have come a long way since the British European days when they very much aspired to be a quality operation serving premium business markets (Remember them being the dominant operator at LCY?). I think the jury is still out on whether that transition has got staying power or whether they are going to have to fine another niche. They have neither the marketing strength, low costs or route density of their main competitors. There are reasons to feel jittery about some of the things that they are doing.
Watch for competitor announcements about sun routes ex BHX and watch out for news of some exciting things at NWI. I suspect that Flybe may be licking a wound or two. They may be more than just flesh wounds. We shall see!.