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Old 5th Aug 2005, 06:47
  #321 (permalink)  
DingerX
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
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fish

bah. I don't know what kind of statistics would be useful or informative. Statistically, any deviation from the absolutely ordinary sunny day visual approach in perfect metereological conditions with no traffic will increase the likelihood of something going amiss.

Statistically, you'll find that around "Red Alerts", ground stops, whatever due to thunderstorms, you have a higher percentage of go-arounds, and a higher percentage of accidents.

But go-arounds are generally safer than the alternative.

And from what I've seen, when something like this happens to an aircraft, and it happens under meteorological conditions which are universally agreed to be marginal, the investigating authority inevitably faults the pilots' decision. Unfortunately, 411A seems to be on vacation.

Yup, plenty of red herrings here folks. Spoiler non-deployment has been faulted in previous incidents and accidents, so I suppose it's worth discussing, but I don't see how speculation on their position in the wreckage photos is going to prove anything either way.

Ravine location is fairly irrelevant here; although a US jury recently awarded damages against the airport in the Little Rock (non-spoiler deployment in thunderstorm) accident to the positioning of light standards, so, at least for airports handling US passengers, these things are cause for consideration.

KLM 691 is the biggest red herring of them all. Many accusations are flying back and forth, and few of them are based in facts; even more amusing is that the few facts that we have are contested for no good reason. Hell, I suspect if the captain of the flight himself were to come in here, someone would accuse him of not knowing what he was talking about. Here's the basic details: Toronto was hit by a couple of isolated thunderstorm cells. From what I've seen of the radar, there was no huge front across North America that would have suggested to someone in AMS ten hours before that an hour's extra fuel was an excellent idea, since there was a good chance that every suitable airport within 1000 miles would be suffering a rare August blizzard. On the ATC recording, KLM 691 is the aircraft after AF358 to be handed off to YYZ tower for 24L. When KLM 691 comes back on, they called "pan pan pan, fuel emergency". They had fuel for SYR plus 30 minutes. The controller offered to find them something closer with a suitable runway, but they declined. Some people around here get all jumpy around the word "emergency"...
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