Over Run,
Thanks for the informative post. Nice name by the way... somewhat appropriate for this topic.
When it comes down to safety, (and longevity) like you had mentioned, that obviously has to be taken on a case by case basis.
I would never suggest landing prior to a displaced threshold on any airport that someone wasn't extremely familiar with.
The sea level VFR only airport in question has been around for about 12 years. They decided to paint a displaced threshold on it about 6 years ago. The pilot in question has landed at this airport virtually every working day for the last 4 years. Probably more than 1000 times. The obstacle on the approach cannot be mistaken, it is a large hill approximately 2 miles on final roughly 500 ft tall. It is possible to approach over the hill, but the gradient is quite extreme. It is very easy, and common practice to turn base/final inside of the 2 miles, and thus entirely avoid the hill, the very obstacle displacing the threshold.
In this particular case, safety and longevity require landing before the displaced threshold. History at this airfield has shown that several aircraft have overrun the runway, after touching down post threshold, but none have ever over run after settling prior to.
The numbers allow several different types to land there, commonly BN2's, AC500's, DHC6's, C402(stolkit) etc. Some have gotten authority to land 208's and 228's but the numbers do not allow such.
In summary, I think in this specific case, and several others, the opposite of the theory could be valid. That is, you could get away with landing after the threshold once, but it would be safer to land before it, every time.