Thoughts on Aer Lingus fleet/route planning?
Recently (before the revelations about the reprehensible EI HR discussion document), we had some discussion about EI fleet and route intentions and I'd just like to take that discussion a bit further.
Clearly, before any route expansion can take place on long haul routes, even before EI decides whether it wants to be a low cost or "normal" long haul carrier, crew morale issues will need to be sorted out and this needs to be done very pro-actively. This needs to be DM's No1 priority.
Without wishing to go into that issue at length and moving on to Stage 2, what are the challenges ahead?
As I see it, Aer Lingus has about four potential markets: the US, Canada, South Africa and Asia. Let's have a quick run through them.
- The US. Clearly the biggest, with very considerable potential. However, the EU/US are still talking. The government has acknowledged, however, that there is "wriggle room", but either the Americans aren't willing to talk or the govt is content to wait. Either way, not much happening there.
- Canada. Closed door to EI. Unrealistic bilateral, with no intention on the Irish side to change it. As long as this goes on, no go there.
- South Africa. Mentioned recently on another thread. No info other than what I've seen there.
- Asia. Mentioned by Dermot Mannion as a potential new market. Trouble here: runway length at DUB, competition from M/E carriers with far better networks, name recognition and service product.
As for the fleet, we've seen rumours about an ex-LX/SR A332 and QF A332s. Neither, unfortunately seems to be happening. In the long term, all the rumours I've heard surround the 777/787; I've heard very little evidence of interest in the A330. Of course, there may be an element of not letting Airbus think they have EI "in the bag", but even still, with Boeing now in the ascendent, Airbus has a big job ahead of it and with privatisation on the horizon, I doubt if the govt will want to use political pressure in Airbus's favour.
I think the biggest concern is the N/Atlantic issue. The danger is that EI just doesn't know when the rule will change; there's no apparent interest in this at govt level and given their record, we have to assume that this is the case. Suitable widebodied aircraft are extremely difficult to come by and if EI gets new rights without suitable aircraft, other European (and indeed, US carriers) can make life very difficult for it. Much better for the govt to act now and smooth the path for EI to grow on T/A flights, but does it have the backbone to stand up the SNN lobby? Doubtful.
Please share your thoughts, insights, views on this!