Business Times - 12 Jul 2005
Is there a pilot in the cockpit?
The real drama in China's rapidly expanding aviation industry is its shortage of hands on deck
(HONG KONG) China's booming commercial aviation industry is taking off faster than the country can train pilots, a trend that threatens future growth and hard-won advances in air safety.
About 11,000 pilots now fly more than 800 aircraft operated by major Chinese commercial airlines, according to figures from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC). Experts believe this number is still inadequate to cope with skyrocketing demand for passenger services. In fact, the agency has capped the number of new aircraft to be delivered to airlines this year at 145 in a bid to ensure manageable growth in the industry. But even these new aircraft are expected to outstrip the capacity of training schools to supply new pilots.
The airlines are reluctant to comment on the shortage, but some smaller Chinese carriers have been forced to flout government policy and recruit foreign pilots as a stopgap measure to keep their aircraft flying at optimum levels.
Industry experts and reports in the official Chinese media confirm that the Chinese carriers that have employed foreign pilots include Shenzhen Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, and the country's first private operator - Okay Airlines.
China-based pilots estimate that there are now well over 100 foreign pilots flying for Chinese carriers. There are also unconfirmed reports that some airlines have been forced to cancel services because of the lack of pilots.
'China may have been caught out a little here,' says John Bent, a Hong Kong-based aircrew training specialist and former senior airline pilot. 'They don't really want to use foreign pilots, but they don't really have any choice in the short term.'
The demand for pilots is likely to increase. Boeing estimates that China will need more than 2,400 new passenger and freight aircraft worth almost US$200 billion over the next two decades. 'In the next 20 years, we estimate China will need 55,000 captains,' says George Liu, a Beijing-based spokesman for Boeing.
Barry Grindrod, a Hong Kong-based aviation analyst and chief executive of Orient Aviation magazine, warns that the impressive safety record Chinese airlines have built in recent years could be in jeopardy if the shortage persists.
'If you don't have enough pilots, there is always a risk that corners will be cut,' he says.
Mr Grindrod adds that most of the foreigners now flying in China were recruited from South America, particularly Brazil and Chile, and Eastern Europe.
While foreign pilots might be a short-term solution to China's pilot shortage, analysts believe that the authorities and the airlines will need to sharply increase the output of pilots from training schools to match the industry's growth.
CAAC statistics show that China's major airlines carried 120 million passengers in 2004, a 38 per cent increase over 2003. Demand is expected to ease this year, but industry analysts expect passenger numbers to jump by at least 15 per cent.
And with close to 10 per cent of active pilots nearing retirement age, Chinese airlines are under short-term pressure to recruit and train.
Jeff Ruffolo, a spokesman for China's biggest carrier, the New York and Hong Kong-listed China Southern Airlines, says the company is planning to expand its pilot training intake without any compromise in standards or resorting to overseas recruiting. 'We grow our own pilots,' he says. 'We do not take any military pilots and we do not take any foreigners.'
Mr Ruffolo says China Southern was growing in 'leaps and bounds' and now has a fleet of more than 230 aircraft serving on more than 540 domestic and international routes. It has also ordered more than 70 new aircraft from Boeing and Airbus.
Unlike other Chinese airlines, China Southern operates its own introductory flight training school, the China Southern Western Australia Flying College, near Perth. Graduates undergo further training in Zhuhai. More than 800 pilots who began their training in the Perth facility have gone on to fly with the airline.
China's only domestic school now training commercial airline pilots, the CAAC-run Civil Aviation Flight University of China based in Sichuan and Henan provinces, supplies a maximum of 600 pilots a year.
Airline pilots and industry experts estimate that China required between 1,200 and 1,600 new pilots each year since 2000 - far more than the number trained domestically. Much of the shortfall had been covered by sending candidates overseas for training.
Analysts note that Chinese airlines are not alone in the battle to recruit and train pilots. This is a problem for all major international carriers at a time when soaring fuel prices are cutting into their profits. - IHT
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