OzExpat -
as I've already indicated, the timing is vastly different as well.
I don't seem to have an earlier post from you in this discussion. Wouldn't want to miss any pearls...
Yes, one of the things bothering me is descending outbound if one isn't within 5deg of the published track. Another thought is that Jepp plates show a fix symbol at the end of the o/b leg of a base turn procedure, which implies that you go to that point and not to some 'adjusted' point.
Having said that, your "statistical wind" certainly doesn't cope with several base turn procedures that I know.
Bookworm - I agree with your points 1) and 2) and yet they're not quite enough to get me off the fence - on which I'm now firmly impaled! It might be possible to compromise by saying "use the 5deg tracking tolerance and track up to 5deg into wind", but that's getting very theoretical. It's all I can do to get guys to keep within 5deg!!
I dunno...