SPS, as I said earlier the drag from the fuselage stops the C of G moving forward - the fuselage hangs under the disc in the hover and is dragged along in forward flight. It will never be statically unstable in this condition.
The pencil is only statically stable - dynamic stability requires positive static stability as the object must try to return to its starting position and overshoot. If the oscillations increase in amplitude it has negative dynamic stability (not good) if the oscillations decrease in amplitude it has positive dynamic stability (a good thing for aircraft).
The pencil falls to the ground without oscillating and has therefore only negative static stability when the C of G is placed outside of it's "footprint".
If the H stabiliser fell of at VNE the aircraft would pitch nose down (aft cyclic could chop off the tail)and accelerate - if it did not destroy itself then flapback would pitch the nose up again which highlights dynamic stability with speed increase.