Ally 1897 - If CHC or BHL was to lose one (or part of) its larger contracts at Aberdeen I can assure you there would be redundancies. CHC particularly is still highly geared and will want to save cash in the event of loss of income. Neither of the parent companies on the other side of the Atlantic will care a toss about new pilot rosters. Loss of income will mean cut surplus staff to reduce the impact on the "bottom line".
I think it won't be until well into next year before there is any significant change of contracts but it will happen - no question in my mind. TUPE does indeed apply to individual contracts when there is an identifiable number of staff which can be seen to be required to support a particular contract - very easy with pilots. I suspect because of the current market share, the target for contract loss will be CHC.
As to current pay negotiations - the pilots position is going to rapidly weaken with the imminent fixed wing redundancies. I just hope our Balpa colleagues have had a successful day in London today.