Well safetypee
In order to accept your explanation I would have to assume that the bow/leading edge pressure wave is significantly different in pressure (not just size) between thick and thin leading surfaces.
Also under that circumstance the nose radom ice acretion should be much lower than the tailplane, which does seem to go against icing test flight experience, so while agreeing with the effects of droplets inertias vs airflow divergence I don't accept the generalizations of thick vs thin leading edges.