roo 2 has it in one.
The response to the shortage, so far anyway, has been progressive de-skilling. From my "beancounting" education, I deduce from the fact that a shortage exists while the price (wages) does not rise, that a market distortion is operating in the job market for aircraft maintenance engineers. In fact companies all over the world are reacting by dumbing down the job and expecting the licenced guys to cover the supervision of more and more semi-skilled workers. One chap stated here in this very Engineer's Forum that he was covering two "C" Checks in different hangars at the same time as the ONLY avionics licence holder on duty.
So, where is the market distortion? Since our employers do not have to employ any specific number of qualified staff, when they are short they simply employ less. The operator's sales are unaffected, output doesn't fall so it must be all right. Logical isn't it? Despite the fact that some of us glory in the title "Production" we don't actually produce anything, our job is to ensure that the means of production remain available. The regulators are well aware of the staffing situation; as the CAA report describes, by their own estimate there are 25%-30% too few licenced staff. But the regulations REQUIRE "sufficient" numbers and the regulators are required by law to enforce those regulations.
So, if the CAA are truly worried, when are they going to do something about it? And the FAA? And CASA? and... need I go on? The sad fact is that standards in our industry are slipping under the relentless pressure to cut costs. All predictions of huge future growth in air travel are based on lower fares, hence lower overall yields. The drive to cut costs even further will continue; wages and staffing levels will remain under pressure and anyone who thinks that the current shortage of skills will lead to higher pay is just dreaming. Those sheds going up now in a land out east, with an unlimited supply of resourceful, skilfull, and above all, cheap engineering employees will fill up with the world's airliners. I predict that HAECO will be the first to feel the chill winds of competition from fully skilled and trained workers earning no more than US$100 a month.
All over the world, airlines are big contributers to political parties and they have political clout. They will continue lobbying to ensure that the regulations do not make dents in profits. In the long run they will get their way, foreign repair stations will be approved and airlines will be able to send their fleets for maintenance wherever they wish. Its called economic reality... Or "Free Trade"
Sorry chaps, but aircraft maintenance is on the same road as steel, shipbuilding, and the other heavy industries. The only thing holding the migration back is the lack of approvals for foreign repair stations. As soon as the JAA and FAA are "persuaded" to grant more foreign facilities full approvals the flood gates will open.
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Through difficulties to the cinema