Smallwing,
Thank you for the kind wishes.
The HKAOA is affiliated to IFALPA, therefore a new recruit joining in breach of the IFALPA ban, irrespective of his/her current union membership, is banned/blacklisted from joining any IFALPA affiliated union, including the HKAOA.
The point raised in the second paragraph is in my view valid. However, a cornerstone of this dispute has always been the survival of the HKAOA as a Union. Should the HKAOA fail to secure the return of the 49ers, then the HKAOA as a Trade Union in reality ceases; the members know this, and the company certainly knows this! Therefore in the context of CX, the ban becomes a non-event because as people disregard union/IFALPA directives, the union weakens and eventually fails; the buzz phrase is, "you get the Union you deserve."
I cannot agree with your views on the support level within the AOA. You must remember that CX pilots come from a host of backgrounds, cultures and each has an almost unique expectation of their CX "careers". It is human nature that not everyone will agree on a course of action. I have been surprised by the high level of support shown to the AOA (2 out 3 pilots within the company agree with the action)and I have been equally surprised by the tolerance shown by the membership to dissenters. I disagree that pilots are scared. I think the membership wishes to consider the consequences of 9/11 and whether this is the time to be engaging in any form of Industrial Action.
Time will tell.