MW,
I agree that cuts at the sharp end increase risk when there is no corresponding cut in task.
IIRC, there was (about 10 years ago) a sqn boss who was v frustrated that there wasn't enough manpower to see off either 4 or 6 jets. This was just after a MAVA which had drastically cut sqn manpower - working from HAS site. Boss went to Sqn WO, responsible for manpower an demanded to know what was up. The WO run through the manpower chart - leave, courses, GDT, detached etc etc and identified that if everyone on site was thrown at the see-offs- no trade cover etc - they would be one man short. "What would that man have to do?" asked the Boss. Man a fire extinguisher was te reply. Job was done, jets seen off, Boss returns to office and declares Sqn non-op due to a lack of manpower. Went down like the proverbial.
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