You light find this website interesting. Perhaps the Saudis don't have as much of the world supply as we are being lead to believe.
potential world oil resources
If we really were getting that close to peak oil production I tend to think the price of a barrel would be higher now than it was in the 70s, in inflation corrected dollars...it isn't by about $20/barrel..40 odd %.
I find it easier to accept that current high prices are driven by futures traders and market manipulation.
Chuck.