Thunderball
A350/787 availability may well lie far in the future but it is already affecting the perception of long term risk associated with the A343 (it may already be affecting the A333 too - dunno). The issue isn't current market values which, as you say, are influenced by present demand (and holding up well for most mainstream types) but future value perceptions such that, if you are looking at structuring, say, an 8 year lease on a mid 90s A343 today, the question asked is what will the secondary market be for the asset at lease expiry? Because deals on so many other "mature" types e.g. 744 are sold on either continuing pax ops or conversion to freight, the A343 suffers because the latter option isn't available. I agree it's naive inasmuch as there may be a conversion programme launched in the interim and, anyway, a 16 year old A343 will compete with new gen equivalents on the basis of value alone, but the fact is that most investors won't touch it with an FV much above scrap. Mind you, if Hunter 58 is right maybe they're right too!