I forgot that significant numbers of F/Os and S/Os leave each year. Anecdotally 30-50 per year. So that dramatically reduces the time to command, because in each year there would be an average of 29 commands plus say 30 leaving, resulting in the queue shrinking, and so about 15 years to upgrade, approximately. This is a two-edged sword, however, because if pay, rostering and conditions improve dramatically then no-one would leave and we are back to ~30 years to upgrade again.
Another factor is that there are 40-45 F/Os that did not sign over to the CX seniority list. So they will be offerred commands on a 1 for 3 (or 4?) basis well ahead of anyone else. So add that number to the ~900 ahead of you on the seniority list.
Lastly, more bad news is that CX can solve its training problem by changing the retirement age from 55 to 60 at a stroke, adding a further five years to the wait for upgrade.
"71 commands in 2001" - I've heard similar before. Do you remember just before ASL that KB told us of 180 commands over the following three years? That came to nothing. About 14 months ago didn't Crews News talk about 50 commands for 2000? Not much happened though. It could happen in 2001 I suppose but I'll believe it when I see it.
Sorry for the bad news, but the data speaks for itself.
[This message has been edited by St_Paul_Island (edited 06 January 2001).]