Command - When will YOU get it?
I was curious to check the actual figures for command upgrades over a ten year period. This should be long enough to iron out the inevitable ups and downs. Command upgrades each year were:
2000: 15 (estimated)
1999: 14 (actual)
1998: 34 (actual)
1997: 30 (actual)
1996: 28 (actual)
1995: 15 (actual)
1994: 46 (actual)
1993: 32 (actual)
1992: 28 (actual)
1991: 47 (actual)
Average: 29 commands per year
As at beginning of 2000, there were 858 on the seniority lists waiting for their turn at command. Add to this about 40-50 to account for new joiners in 2000 if you are joining CX soon.
This applies to any fleet or position that you join, ie if you join the cargo outfit as a First Officer you do not bypass anyone on the seniority list. You wait your turn like everybody else.
There are no new aircraft orders at all. Even if a big order were announced tomorrow it will take a few years to be fulfilled and for aircraft to be delivered. There is no retirement hump. So the above figures look about right for the forseeable future.
Bottom line: Join tomorrow and it is 31 years to command (~900 positions divided by 29 upgrades per year). Yuch!