1 striper, look at the 900 F/O`s and S/O`s b/t new joiner and command. If you were 1 year away from command would you leave? not. If you were two years away would you leave? think not. Three years? probably not. Four. maybe not etc. Most likely the further away you are from command. Do you think that half of the guys you joined with are going to leave?? If you answered yes, and you expect this has happened to every one above you, then obviously this thinning out has already happened, i.e. most of the guys who joined 8 years ahead of you that were going to leave... ALREADY HAVE!!!
I`ve been here 4 and some years. Of the group of 14 that joined around the same time, 3 have left. In the next 4 or so years, maybe only one more will go.
If you expect someone joining today to be eligble for a command in 9 years, then refer below. Not trying to rain on your parade. Just the numbers.
