Okay, I`ll give my 10 rupiahs worth.
Last time I took any notice there were about 500 Captains (including freighters)
If you join today you are about # 1400 (I think)
So you have 900 slots to move through before you become elegible.
Pick an average number for command upgrades you expect to be maintained b/t now and year x (my figure is 60), and refer table below.
900/yr = 1 year
450/yr = 2 yrs
300/yr = 3
225 = 4
180 = 5
150 = 6
130 = 7
110 = 8
100 = 9
90 = 10
80 = 11
75 = 12
70 = 13
65 = 14
60 = 15
This is the most simple way of looking at it, and doesn`t take into consideration F/O retirements etc.
And if I catch one of you saying (in year 2010) `Well when I joined, they said it was ten years to command, and IT STILL IS` there`ll be some ass kickin!