Racing to the bottom.

[Flying Tiger]

In my opinion this long, slow race to the bottom will shortly be replaced by a very sharp, quick sprint to the top.

The industry is changing rapidly and as employers exploit pilots, we as a group become downcast as real wages initially decline and paying for endorsements becomes standard. This has two effects - first, it makes airlines more efficient, and second, it makes the industry less attractive to prospective pilots.

More efficient industries mean more growth. No industry was more in need of change than the airline industry, and the efficiencies being created are leading to massive worldwide growth. Essentially this means more aircraft, and obviously more pilots. This growth will be more resistant to cyclic downturns for the simple reason that it is more flexible and more efficient.

At the same time management screw pilots in the short term because there is still fat out there from the historically inefficient legacy carriers, but this can only last for so long. With less pilots coming in (and why would you start now), there will be a MASSIVE shortfall of pilots within 5 years.

A common theme amongst the new players is they have plans for very fast growth, which means they require experienced operators, and the supply is becoming quite thin on the ground.
If you don't believe me look around you. China, Japan, and Singapore are desperate for expat pilots and will be so for at least the next decade - it takes a long time for a cadet to reach Captain. In India there have been several press reports in the past couple of weeks highlighting the dire plight of the newly deregulated industry's growth prospects due to the lack of experienced pilots, and all carriers including the state owned dinosaurs have indicated a requirement for foreigners. A320 pilots in Singapore have just had a significant pay rise. Virgin Blue have instituted a significant rise in the form of their "retention allowance", so disguised so the rest of the company don't object to percentage increases greater than the standard 3%. Jetconnect have lost 10 percent of their pilot body in the last 3 months, and this despite a significant base payrise, a retention allowance, and the inclusion of overtime over 65 hours. There is no jet experience left in NZ and all their new FO's have no jet time and can't take commands for at least a couple of years. Its not as if they can call upon the airforce any more! They are now looking at direct entry captains, but who knows where they'll come from? The net 737 FO package, even if you make adjustments for currency and super, is only about 10K less than I get as a 767 FO in Australia (Ive don the sums, don't make me print them). The major factor in this is the lower tax rates.

So I say to the NJS guys, you only have to cop the crap if you are adamant you want to stay where you are. Settled with a wife, kids in school etc, all valid reasons. But if not, don't cop it. Don't bother paying for a dead end 717 endorsement. You may as well spend the same money on a 737 or A320 qualification and get a job with ongoing employment prospects. Look around you and see whats on offer. The structure and conditions are different to old style carriers, but the money is really not so bad if you're prepared to work. You can then screw the same shortsighted management types that are now screwing you on the basis they think pilots are a dime a dozen. That may be true on the surface, but EXPERIENCED pilots are nowhere to be found. Take charge of your own destiny. There is so much more out there.

FT