787-A380 news
The 787 Gives Boeing an Edge Over Airbus
Three times more orders than its European riva's A380
Expansion (Madrid) 02/02/05
author: Miguel Angel Gavira
Copyright(C) 2005 Abstracted from Expansion in Spanish, Source: World Reporter (TM)
THREE TIMES MORE ORDERS THAN ITS EUROPEAN RIVAL'S A380
THE 787 GIVES BOEING AN EDGE OVER AIRBUS
The North-American giant has 186 orders since its new plane was launched last April. At book price, the group will earn 22,3 billion dollars, 27.6% more than the European manufacturer during the same period.
Miguel Angel Gavira. Madrid
The North-American giant has 186 orders since its new plane was launched last April. At book price, the group will earn 22,3 billion dollars, 27.6% more than the European manufacturer during the same period.
Apart from its latest success in Japan, thanks to its order for thirty 737, Boeing is strongly committed to its new programme, the 787 Dreamliner. Yesterday, the European company announced a change of chairman to strengthen the Japanese market and appointed Glen Fukushima as the top executive in that country.
During the first nine months --the start of the 787 programme was in May--, there have been 186 firm orders for the Boeing plane. The figure is three times higher than the 62 planes ordered during the same period for the A380 programme, which was launched in December 2000.
This huge difference may be justified by the different size of the planes. The Boeing plane can hold between 200 and 250 people and has a book price of 120 million dollars. The plane that Airbus has opted for can transport between 555 and 853 passengers and costs 282 million dollars. Despite these differences, Boeing is ahead of Airbus in terms of earnings. With 186 firm orders, the North American group will win 22,320 million dollars, 27.6% more than the European one.
Despite the different business segments in which the two planes are operating, the comparison is important as both the 787 Dreamliner and the A380 are the two flagships and set the different strategies of the two groups for the future.
Boeing believes that the number of flights with direct destinations will increase during the coming two decades. According to the demand study that the company publishes every year, the market will request 3,500 planes of the same characteristics as the 787 Dreamliner during that period. According to the US giant, this segment of the market will represent 400,000 million dollars.
The Airbus theory for the coming twenty years is totally different, as it defends the flights to the large hubs or distribution centres to then end their trips with flights on small domestic routes.
In its last market report, the European manufacturer stated that it would need 1,250 planes within the very large category. 64% of this figure would be included in the 500 to 600 seat capacity, the same segment in which the A380 will operate. According to the company based in Toulouse, France, the A380 project will be profitable from 250 orders. At the end of 2004, 139 orders had been received.
The US company disagrees and estimates that the planes over 400 seats represent 4% of the total demand, which means approximately 790 planes. According to their figures, although the number of trips increased between 1990 and 2004, the size of the planes has decreased, a trend that contradicts Airbus's provisions, as the latter believes that the average size of the planes will increase by 20%.
In case Boeing has got their strategy right, Airbus will launch the A350 on the market to directly compete with the 787. John Leavy, the group's vice-president yesterday announced that they expected one hundred firm orders before the end of the year.
Congestion
Another of Boeing and Airbus arguments for launching their new flagship programmes is the current congestion at the airports. The European group believes that the bigger the planes, the less traffic there will be in the airports, as the large capacity reduces the need to double the current facilities to deal with the increased demand. Airbus calculates that around sixty airports are ready to receive the A380.
Boeing does not share this idea either. The larger planes do not solve airports congestion. If that were the case, more Boeing 747s, the largest plane in the world until the arrival of the A380, would be used. However, during the last twenty years, the 747 takeoff rate from the thirteen busiest airports dropped or remained stable. Boeing also thinks that there are only a few airports ready to receive the A380, thirteen, and a further 39 are being adapted, compared to the 200 that operate with the 747.
Two different strategies for the coming twenty years
Boeing has opted for flights with a direct destination, a demand of 3,500 airplanes similar to the 787 Dreamliner.
Airbus believes that the market will request 1,250 planes for over four hundred passengers.
The American group says that the size of the planes is decreasing, while the European group believes that it will increase 20%
The start of the 747-400 was better
One of the reasons that Boeing gives to show that the A380 is not going to fulfil its provisions is based on the evolution of its best known plane, the Jumbo 747. The North American manufacturer believes that Airbus's estimates of 1,200 planes over twenty years are not believable, and it reminds that 1,349 units of the Boeing 747 were sold over the last 35 years. If we compare the first four launch years of the 747-400 (the latest version of the family) and the A380 programmes, the Boeing plane achieved 165 orders, 30% more than the 139 orders obtained by Airbus. In the two following years of the programme Boeing reached 399 orders. If the European manufacturer is to equal these figures, it will have to triple the current order figure. Boeing insists that these differences are even more important, if we take into account that the launch of the 747 meant doubling the passenger capacity of a commercial aircraft at the time.
The battle for the market
Evolution of the orders during the first nine months of each programme (1)
simulation of the income according to the catalogue prices, in millions of dollars
(1) The order of five 787 from Ethiopean Airlines, placed in February, is not included
Source: Prepared using Airbus and Boeing data