Very important points to remember are that;
a) The TAF forecast average windspeed is just that - an average. The actual wind at any moment may be more or less than that speed at any time.
b) Gusts are only reported and are only forecast if they reach 10Kt above the average.
c) The diection is also averaged and changes in direction will only be reported if they are 30 degrees from the average.
Thus a wind forecast of 23015 can mean;
Wind direction varies from 200 to 260 and speed varies from 4 to 24 Knots.
If the max wind reaches 25 then the report will say 23015G25
But is that 1 knot change in windspeed really so different from what went before?
Also worth remembering is that in the northern hemisphere when the wind gusts the direction veers. Thus if landing with a crosswind from the right, if the wind gusts the direction will move further away from the runway making the effect of the gust even more apparent!
regards,
DFC