I reckon Aurigny's problems are down to a number of reasons:
1. The Guernsey-Jersey route has become too expensive (£85 full fare day return).
2. The Guernsey-Jersey schedules were reduced in the Summer of 2003 to just 8 on weekdays, 5 on Saturdays and 4 on Sundays on a route which in the past saw about 20 flights per day. The service has since been increased and is now running at about 12-14 flights per day on weekdays. Guernsey people like to fly over to Jersey for the day to do shopping, play sport etc. - this requires an early departure and a late return. On some Saturdays in the Summer the first flight (and sometimes only flight) departed at 0930 with the last flight back at 1800. This compares to the 1980s and 90s when it was possible to take a 0730 departure and a 1930 return flight. Aurigny faces competition from Condor (the sea carrier) which charges approx £23 for a day return fare with the ferry leaving Guernsey at about 0950 and returning at 2040. The Airports in both Islands are open until 2100 so surely it would have been possible to offer passengers a longer day.
3. The Guernsey-Stansted was operated up to 4 times a day. The aircraft was suddenly switched to Jersey leaving Guernsey with 2 flights a day operating in the middle part of the day. The Guernsey service is reducing to 1 flight a day for next year. This will do nothing to attract businessmen or indeed lesuire pax who wish to connect with other flights at Stansted.
4. The Dinard Service was operated 2-3 times a day. First flight leaving Guernsey at 0820 with the last flight returning in the early evening. This is changing to 1 mid day flight next year. Another route which will probably suffer a big reduction in pax as a result of the rescheduling. This has been a twice daily service for many years and has allowed locals to have short breaks and long weekends in France. A mid day service is hardly convenient especially as the direct car ferry sailings to France were recently terminated. Aurigny should be increasing services as a result not reducing them.
5. Why operate a Bournemouth Service. This is not a high density route. Rockhopper were already operating daily flights to all 3 Islands from Bournemouth but Aurigny decided that it would compete on the Bournemouth-Jersey and Bournemouth-Guernsey routes. Why not leave this route to Rockhopper.
6. Why did Aurigny start regional services from Jersey. The airline was purchased by the States of Guernsey to protect airlinks from Guernsey. How about the Jersey-Manchester route - that was in competition with both BA and BMiBaby using jet aircraft (146s/737s). The SAAB 340 is hardly an attractive alternative. The Jersey-Bristol route started last summer was in competition with no less than 3 airlines: Air Southwest (albeit via Plymouth), Flybe (using Dash 8 400s) and BA (using ERJ-145s).
7. Too many different types of aircraft being used. Trislanders, Shorts 360, SAAB 340 and ATR-72s. One of each of the latter three types were usually parked up to act as a back up. The Trislanders + one other type would have meant that only one aircraft would have been needed to act as a back up (Trislanders excluded). A mix of ATR-42/72s may have been better. On some routes the ATR-72s were probably too large.
And finally when Flybe suggested that it might operate from Guernsey-Manchester Aurigny threatened to start Guernsey-Southampton and Guernsey-Birmingham routes in completion with Flybe!