As I said, I was just putting another perspective that was not all doom and gloom and I fully understand and appreciate that not all employers are alike.
I also agree that things change and sympathise with anyone in the predicament that many of our colleagues find themselves in through no fault of their own, but through bad management and accounting.
Unfortunately, I don't think you can plan your future as a Wannabe trying to predict which company is going to be the next to fall from grace, that's impossible. You can only go on what is current and cast in stone. Join an airline on a certain level of terms and conditions today and then you have the collective determination to maintain those terms and conditions. If the business is going to crumble about you (a la many US major carriers) then as a group you may have to decide to lower your terms and conditions to keep the business going and your job. That's reality and business, which we are all subject to. I totally agree that new joiner packages are on the slide across the board, which reflects the current trading market (too many pilots and not enough jobs) and even the so called 'better' airlines are charging for type ratings and closing pension schemes or reducing benefits together with lower starting wages etc. It confirms the addage that you earn what you can negotiate, not necessarily what you are worth. What we have to bear in mind is that many airlines have historically adjusted things such as pension benefits downwards for new joiners several times already, so that is nothing new. My pension benefit is much lower than those who are retiring now whom, IMHO have had the best of this industry, but I am still happy with it and will make other provision to compliment what my employer offer.
I agree Cruise that my airline may be doing well at the moment (actually just trying to not stand still whilst the market shifts beneath us all) and that is no guarantee of success in the future, but again, from the Wannabe perspective none of us have a crystal ball and it is impossible for them to make a guess at future successful airlines; it is a notoriously high risk business. I personally think that there is going to be a blip in the low cost market at some point over the coming years, but that is just my guess.
It must be terrible sitting in the left seat of an airline which is in trouble, especially when you have years of service and seniority invested. The fragility of this business is brought home to us all and is something which perhaps Wannabes should take note of. I personally experienced redundancy after 9/11 and sympathise with all who are in such a stressful position, but perhaps from my point of view it happened at a good time; I had only been there a year so didn't have much to lose other than the job (although I couldn't see that positive at the time!) and I understand that even the F/Os who are in the frame at your airline have considerably more years and increments to lose should redundancy happen.
I think Cruise is right to let Wannabes know what they are getting into, but I think my points help to add some balance also; it can be rough, it can be frustrating, it can be tedious and it can be morale sapping, but its not ALL doom and gloom, there are still better jobs and worse jobs out there, you really do have to show the determination to get one of the better ones and then hope that the rug isn't pulled from under you..............if you want a steady job, steady wage, steady pension and steady life join the Civil Service, if you want to fly aeroplanes you have to accept the nature of the business. What is sure though is that air travel is and will continue to increase over the coming years so there at least should be jobs for qualified and experienced pilots as the years tick by.
As for future recruitment needs, who knows? The quote I gave came from our MD and I should clarify was an industry projection, not company requirement! 800 jobs in 2005 would sound reasonable to me taking into account the low cost continued growth coupled to traditional carriers recruitment needs. The trend should be for recruitment to continue in future years, but as we all know; one or two small events can change all that. 9/11 was the catalyst that put recruitment back 3 years, but hopefully it has lead to some better managed carriers which are more efficiently run and perhaps in slightly more stable positions than the 'head in the sand' stability that prevailed leading up to those tragic events.
Anyhow, I hope I have provoked a little more thought on the part of Wannabes as that was my only intention.
PP