ShotOne,
Agree with you as to "probably". They would have had a marginally better chance.
The fatigue question bothers me because there's a general tendency on here to prejudge, to assume that the crew were fatigued and that that was the main contributing factor. From there to blaming MK for inhuman rostering etc is soo easy.
It may well turn out that this was the case. But the investigation will first be trying to establish what the physical sequence of events was, then whether the sequence was incorrect and, finally, why it was incorrect. And that's when you start considering the fatigue issue.