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Old 11th Dec 2004, 17:11
  #18 (permalink)  
ElectroVlasic
 
Join Date: May 2004
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7E7 is smaller

A350-800 = 245 seats 8,600 nm
7E7-8 = 217 seats 8,500 nm

A350-900 = 285 seats 7,500 nm
7E7-9 = 257 seats 8,300 nm

A350 is not the competitor of 7E7. They are on two distinct, but very closely positioned, market segments.

Because A350-800 and A350-900 are A330 on steroids, A350 will be a tough competitor of the current A330 and A340-300.

A350-900 = 285 seats 7,500 nm
A340-300 = 295 seats 7,400 nm

A350-900 will take benefit of new generation engines so it will burn much less fuel than A340-300.
A330 and A340-300 will simply be crushed by their younger sister A350.
I think a different way to look at the same data is:
  • B did its work on 7e7 first, so A has the luxury of responding to B's product (at the cost of being later to market)
  • B wants a product line with range/capacity points that do not overlap
  • B defintely would not want to create a product that overlaps with 777
  • A clearly would want to attack the gaps in B's product line
  • Thus A's annoucement has products that overlap the top of the 7e7 line and the bottom of the 777 line
So, it's really brilliant strategy on the part of Airbus. Now it is up to the execution of the plans. I imagine to get a plane with ~30% greater range than the predecessor, the A350 will have to be almost an entrely new plane. It will be very interesting to see what emerges.

For those who hate the A vs B wars you can see the benefit of the competition. If there was no genuine competition, there would be no need for the use of new materials, or better engines, etc.

One comment to make on A's sizing of the market: They claim 3000 airframes, which is more than B's claims which were around 2000 airframes. The claims are interesting, because A does not have to begin to pay back its development loans till it has sold 40% of its anticipated market. Presumably A is planning to sell 50% of the 3000 frames, no? Also interesting that A380 is forecast to 1000 frames, so no loans will begin repayment till 400 are sold, and ~120 or so are currently sold. Its probably not polite to keep bringing up the loan issue, but it is a key factor in how A can get product into the market faster than B can, and the quickness of A's response to 7e7 is evidence of this.
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