Twin
I believe you are an airline professional and part of your work involves routes. I confess to being merely an interested amateur and I certainly take on board your point about load factors only being part of the equation vis-a-vis route/base profitability, and probably a less important one at that.
I believe that good load factors do at least suggest there is a potential market on a route and it is up to an airline to exploit it as best it can. I realise there can be occasions when the price needed to make a route sustainable will be so high that the majority of the potential customers will be driven away. Prior to Go/easyJet arriving at BRS the BA franchised route to Scotland (Brymon/BACx) often charged over £200 for a return ticket, sometimes over £300. Most people simply went by train or to LHR.
Go/easyJet certainly concentrated BA's mind at Lulsgate and their fares are now much lower than they were in pre loco days. Whether they are unsustainably low relative to pax numbers I don't know.
Apart from the already mentioned CDG, EDI, GLA, FRA and MUC routes, the only other BACx route from BRS is the daily JER rotation. This year they have had competition from three other airlines operating daily flights to the largest Channel Island, viz Aurigny, Flybe and Air South West.
If your contention that BACx is played out at BRS is correct one would think this summer would be make or break time.
Incidentally, I am not really arguing against you because my knowledge of airline economics and especially the situation re BACx/BRS is insufficient to make a solid guestimate. I always hate to see airlines or even routes discontinued - from anywhere. However, I recognise the reality of economics.
Today's Bristol Evening Post reports that BRS is to spend £50 million on further airport improvements over the next five years. I would love to think that BACx is around to see some of them.
As to Flybe and EXT/CDG I assume it would have an impact, albeit possibly a minor one, on pax numbers to the French capital from BRS because the most recent statistics issued by Bristol Airport suggest that 12% of its overall pax emanate from Devon and Cornwall - that would be around half a million people this year. However, that is what competition is about and good luck to them if they decide to give it a go. My brother-in-law lives on Dartmoor and is always pleased to see new routes from EXT.
BTW, a drink sounds like an excellent idea although I am a bit committed in the immediate future – my wife broke her leg and I am suddenly having to do all those chores again I thought one only did as a newly-wed.
Maybe we can put it on the back burner for the time being.