It is rare that I find anything to argue with MV about... him/her and I share common ground a remarkably high percentage of the time... we must meet for a beer one day!
But.
I still think that BACx look at BRS as a bit of a problem. Volumes from BRS, and, by extension yields, must have been hammered by easy (and to a lesser extent baby ex CWL), and I, unlike MV, am surprised that they still persist in CDG. If easy hit this route, BA will be massacred. The CWL example - when BA did it with the 145 (49 seats, two returns a day) it was rarely full. Baby are getting manageable (not great) loads on a 737 - but these are WAY higher loads than BA got. This route from the regions - like many others (BRS, CWL etc etc) is way more price sensitive than the equivalent route from LHR etc....
Once again tho, it boils down to the fact that the CAA figs are almost (note that word) irrelevant. All you can suss from them is load; airlines that chase load tend to be short-lived!! What counts is YIELD - and the CAA won't tell you that. It is VERY difficult to suss out the absolute yields on these routes - and even harder to suss the gross margin - from the evidence of a few fares.... the other issue re the German routes is their contribution.... they make make a lot as part of a balanced handful of BRS routes, but on their own, do they justify a base? And I can't believe that EDI/GLA haven't been screwed by easy, much to the benefit of the consumer....
My gut feeling on EXT-CDG is that flybe should go for it. Whilst EXT is probably likely to have a number of people who will drag to BRS for the FF miles, there are LOADS of people - particularly west of EXT - who wouldn't. Fancy sharing a beer to discuss that one, MV?
BRegards
TA