The alleged NZ pilot shortage - THE FACTS
OK people
here's some hard cold statistics for you all.
Delta T gets all credit for doing the research, I'm just posting my thoughts on it.
Statistic # 1
From the stats office, 2001 census
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for the Employed Census Usually Resident Population Count
Aged 15 Years and Over, 2001
31431Aircraft Pilot and Flight Crew 1,608
31433Flying Instructor 210
31434Helicopter Pilot 231
Statistic #2
From the CAA website
new CPL issue figures from 1993 - 2003
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1993 167
1994 231
1995 310
1996 270
1997 261
1998 223
1999 197
2000 186
2001 178
2002 265
2003 167
Statistic # 3
From the CAA website once again
Total number of pilot licences issued, with active class 1 / class 2 medical. i.e. for ATPL (A)'s, 2447 total, 1101 with active class 1, 552 with class 2
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Licence Type Total Class 1 Class2
ATPLA Part 61 PL(Aeroplane) 2447 1101 552
ATPLH Part 61 PL (Helicopter) 91 43 18
CPLA Part 61 PL(Aeroplane) 4080 1405 1058
CPLB Part 61 PL (Balloon) 37 19 7
CPLG Part 61 PL (Glider) 8 3 2
CPLH Part 61 PL (Helicopter) 1257 604 318
PPLA Part 61 PL(Aeroplane) 8224 380 2890
PPLH Part 61 PL (Helicopter) 860 81 338
SCPLA Part 61 PL(Aeroplane) 50 5 8
Right you guys got all that?
Let's have a think here.
What we've got is (1,608 + 210) 1,818 people on the census who reckon they fly fixed wing airplanes commercially for a living (I would be very surprised if there were 210 full time paid flying instructor positions in NZ though!!)
There are (1,092 + 1,399) 2,491 active ATPLs and CPLs, (i.e. those with current class 1 medicals). Presumably the difference between the 2,491 and the 1,818 is those who are currently student CPL pilots, and those who are unemployed but maintaining their currency while they look for work.
There are a further ( (2,448 - 1,092) + (4,075 - 1,399) 4,032 holders of CPLs and ATPLs which are inactive, i.e. they only have current class 2 medical privileges or no medical at all.
The total figures of (2,448 + 4,075 -1,818) = 4,705 CPL or ATPL licences which aren't being actively used.
Of course, some of those licence holders are going to be retired, and some others will be flying overseas. If we do some hypothetical trickery with retirement-at-65 and average-life-expectancy figures, I reckon about 1/3 of them would be retired (or lost their medicals while they were younger). The other big factor is those kiwis like myself who have gone overseas to look for work, no idea how many of them are now in Cathay or Emirates or easyjet or Virgin Blue but it's got to be quite a few. Let's say a couple of thousand (I'd be surprised if it was as many as that but I've got no real idea of how to find out those figures). However, you can't actually use all of us as fodder for the alleged 'pilot shortage' in NZ though, because so many of us would actually love to come back home and fly for a living if the jobs were there! So let's say, half of them are gone for good with no intention of ever returning and flying in NZ, and half of them would come home if a suitable job was available.
Summary so far :
4,705 'inactive' commercial licences
1,568 retired
1,000 overseas and don't ever want to come back to NZ
=
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A potential 2,137 pilots available to NZ airline operators, right this minute.
In addition to that we have the new CPL issue figures. Now this is the most critical and disturbing set of figures as far as I'm concerned.
Let's say those 1,818 active kiwi commercial pilots have an average 40 year flying career in NZ (first commercial flying job at 25 and retire at 65). That would make, on average, 45.4 commercial pilot positions available every year.
The number of new CPLs issued over the past decade, has been (average of those 10 year figures) average of 223 new CPLs issued every year. That is precisely 4.9 times more new CPLs than jobs, ever single year. Or to look at it another way, it's 79% of the total new pilots every year, 177 new holders of CPLs EVERY YEAR who statistically are heading straight for the dole queue. In addition to the 2,137 who are already on it.
Amazing.
Still reckon there's a pilot shortage Mr Sattler? Huh? Huh?
Your thoughts please everyone ...