Muddergoose,
I do not wish to speculate, but with all due respect to the many competent professionals at ATSB, expediency is probably not the one characteristic that springs to mind when describing the organisations main attributes.
Hence, my surprise at the release of these early findings was caused by the timing as well as the fact that they are at the same time very explicit (3.83 degrees off an alleged cleared track) and apparently contracticory (were they at Jervis Bay or Ulladulla when clearance to track direct to BLAED was issued?) The conjecture that i read into the preliminary ATSB findings published, is that the pilot had set off tracking towards somewhere else than where ATC had given him clearance to go, and I just would like to see the ATSB being specific about where he was when the implied navigation error originated.