As Donald Rumsfield said: There are known unknowns, and there are unknown unknowns........
Why wouldn't the US, Spain, Italy or France help with nation X in your scenario?
Why wouldn't they help in 1982? Just because they support us politically and on the diplomatic front doesn't mean that they will always be willing to commit front line forces.
Back to my scenarios.
1. Jags may have been in the area at the time. but would they have had the same psychological impact as several big grey ships off the Sierra Leone coast? The two flat tops (Illustrious and Ocean, together with a couple of frigates also provided helicopters, logistics, medical support and possible naval gunfire support from the frigates. Even if Jags had been sent, we probably would have sent either a CVS or LPH.
More to the point, if there had been an air threat, perhaps to our helicopters, would the Jaguar or Harrier GR7 have been able to adequately deal with it?
It is very possible that the next few years will see other UK involvements in Africa, possibly for peacekeeping, peace support or other low intensity stuff. The Darfur part of Sudan. A possible civil war in Nigeria. Trouble in the Horn of Africa. The major conflict in central Africa, which the EU (including Britain) are trying to bring to and end, that involves five or six different countries. All these scenarios could see our forces being attacked or harassed by air.
2. Attacks on shipping. Apart from the nations listed above, any of Magube's ilk looking for a fight might see to target British shipping. Sudan might seek to do it to punish us for any involvement in Darfur. Surely you wouldn't want to base aircraft in the Kingdom of Saud? A carrier in the Red Sea instead perhaps? An increasingly belligrent Iran might try attacking shipping to test western mettle. Remember the tanker wars of the 1980s? Being able to protect shipping with aircraft with UK markings could be priceless diplomatically.
Before you state land based aircraft could do it - what about the (disgraceful) reductions in RAF fighter numbers? Would there be enough aircraft to spare (particularly if they are commited to other tasks or places).
3. The Falklands. I pondered about what would happen if the Falklands protection force was withdrawn due to cuts and/or overstretch. In any case, if the Argies did start rattling the sabre, what better reply that to send a CVS based force to carry out exercises in the South Atlantic. Defence diplomacy again.
As I have asked before, is it more sensible to base capabilities on known threats (hoping we never get caught unawares) or on known vulnerabilties?
As for multi national operations, what if UK forces are operating several hundred miles away from the nearest (allied) carrier, but less than 100 miles from an enemy airbase, complete with MiGs (and possibly anti ship missiles)?
PS One of the conclusions of the report on Operation Telic was that Host Nattion Support cannot be taken for granted.