GD&L:
But you’ve got to admit that Airbus has got the b@lls to move forward in spite of the uncertainty of most buyers economic health when finally the bird’s delivery arrives. But then again, the higher the risk, the higher the gain.
Airbus has excuted extremely well, and has a wonderful product line that has great commonality, great technology, great safety, and covers every part of the market. They've shown the way on many things for the previous market leader, Boeing, and I say, good on them!
I think they've taken risks, but I think one must admit the launch aid makes this a lot easier to do. Basically one third of the money is given up front and with no need to start repaying till 40% of your anticipated production run has been achieved. This generous loan, and the implied support of the government should things go way bad (they'd rather shore things up a bit than losing their whole nut, no?) makes it a lot easier to gather the rest of the sum required.
But I think the talk of changing the 1992 agreement will amount to nothing. I think a change can be justified, given how Airbus has overtaken Boeing, and how Airbus is now in the defense space too, etc. But the US side is asking for a concession, and isn't offering anything in return. And given the (justified) anti-American stance most Europeans have, I can't see why the EU would make such a concession, unless they get something in return, or they just happen to feel a twang of guilt.
Financing aside, I'm glad Airbus has taken the risks they have. Who knows when Boeing would have gotten around to FBW if Airbus wasn't around?
Colossus:
If they had perhaps focused on either the 7E7 or the next generation of aircraft for the 737 / A320 market slot, they doubtless might have been close to making the first test flights / deliveries imminently.
Thanks for the clarification. I do agree Boeing has stumbled around a bit, and has some egg on the face to show for it. I do see the lost opportunities, but I don't think the company is feeling too bad about that. I think that instead they are darn glad they didn't commit to Sonic Cruiser and sink the company doing so. Sometimes the best deal is the one you do not make.
I think Boeing if anything is getting more conservative with time. They wil tend to not do anything that might sink the company, and will work to hold the middle of the market rather than the edges. The 777 was about DC10 and L1011 replacement, and the 7E7 will be about 757/767/A300 replacement. A large target, one that should be relatively easy to hit. Hopefully their attempts to push the state of the art with composites will be successful.
I think a lot of Boeing's motivation to talk about launch aid is to make Airbus more sensitive about and exposed to market risk, so both are on an equal footing that way, but I don't see the status quo chaning any time soon. That's probably a good thing for Airbus, and may or may not be a good thing for European taxpayers.
Thanks to both of you for your civilized discourse on this topic!
--ev--