Unless there's another Howard-Wedge Issue ® then we'll see the following electoral pattern on 9 October:
1. 90% of lifetime Liberal voters will stick with Howard/Costello.
2. An unknown number of the remaining 10% will vote otherwise on the trust issue.
3. An unknown number of lifetime National voters will vote otherwise, most of these in QLD.
4. Most swingers will abandon the coalition
5. A small percentage of lifetime Labor voters will move further left.
Bottom line: large swing to Labor (on preferences) is inevitible. How much? We'll have to wait.