DOUBLE ACCIDENT IN CIS
I DID A RADIO INTEVIEW YESTERDAY )TUESDAY) MORNING AND THIS IS THE CRIB SHEET I MADE UP TO HELP. IT MAY OR MAY NOT ADD ANYTHING TO WHAT IS IN THIS THREAD ALREADY. IT DOES NOT READ WELL BECAUSE IT IS IN NOTE FORM, BUT I HAVE NOT GOT THE TIME TO RE-WRITE IT IN PROSE !!
TU 134 DOMODEVO TO VOLVOGRAD (STALINGRAD)
TU 154 SAME TO SOCHI BLACK SEA (PUTIN THERE AT THE MOMENT
Tu 154 [RUSSIAN TRIDENT and B727 LOOK ALIKE] FIRST FLEW 1972 923 BUILT This is 33rd fatal accident , but that includes 1 door opening, loss of 2 hostesses, one destroyed by troops storming after hijack
TU 134 [RUSSIAN BAC 111 STILL - HAS BOMB AIMERS CAPSULE IN NOSE (originally developed from Tu-16 “Badger”] FIRST FLEW 1967 852 BUILT including 200 military examples - 300 STILL FLYING ACCIDENTS RECORD SIMILAR OR WORSE THAN 154.
IN BOTH TYPES ACCIDENTS MAINLY OCCURRED PRE 2000 WHEN A MAJOR OVER HAUL OF CIS AIRLINES BEGAN
SIBIR THE OPERATOR OF ONE OF THE AIRCRAFT (BLACK SEA) HAD ONE SHOT DOWN IN THE SAME LOCATION IN OCTOBER 2001 BY MISSILE [UKRAINIAN]
Sibir is now Russia’s second largest airline, and should carry some 4 million passengers this year. Well run, good training facilities and centre, one of the few to use CRM / LOFT in Russia
CAUSE OF ACCIDENTS NOT KNOWN AT PRESENT
FOR EXAMPLE EI ONT? [AER LINGUS VISCOUNT OVER TUSKAR ROCK] CRASH ONLY RESOLVED AFTER 35 YEARS AND REPORT COMPLETELY OVERTURNED PREVIOUS REPORTS
FLASHAIR RED SEA ACCIDENT STILL UNRESOLVED - JAN THIS YEAR YET EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT SAID IT WAS “TERRORISM” WITHIN HOURS OF THE CRASH.
HOWEVER ONE CAN MAKE SOME INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE DOUBLE CRASH……..
10 YEARS AGO WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN TOO SURPRISED (CRASH OF TWO RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT) EXCEPT FOR HAPPENING ON SAME DAY FROM SAME AIRPORT WITHIN MINUTES AND ON SAME ROUTES WITH HIGH TERRORIST BACKGROUND THREAT. BOTH AIRCRAFT ‘OLD’ TECHNOLOGY THOUGH!
ACCIDENT RATES WORLD WIDE ARE AS FOLLOWS
3RD WORLD (DOES NOT REALLY APPLY TO RUSSIA NOW) 20 X MORE HAZARDOUS THAN 1ST CLASS WESTERN OPERATORS.
1994 was the low point for Russian aviaition. (because of the publicity generated around the Airbus – pilot’s son i/c accident) Russian government asked FAA to fully audit Russian civil aviation, FAA issued series if recommendations, all followed. Safety improved considerably, no accidents 1997 to 1999, last accident (to airliner – HELIS excluded) in July 2002 (2 events, collision over Lake Constance, + Il-86on ferry to base lost on t/o from Moscow, 14 crew dead).
CLUES TO TERRORIST ATTACK
· NO ADMISSION OF RESPONSIBILITY – INDEED IT HAS BEEN DENIED BY “SOURCES” [but then there were none after 9 /11, started trend?]
· Sibir confirms hijack code message – BUT no PAN put out by either crew
· IF THERE WAS A HIJACK, THEN IT IS UNLIKELY THAT IT WAS A BOMB SINCE NO PILOT WOULD SEND OUT A HIJACK CODE AFTER A BOMB. A HIJACKER DOES NOT USUALLY SET OFF A BOMB ON HIS OWN AIRCRAFT OR IF HE DOES, HE DOESN’T NEED TO ATTACK THE CREW. SO THIS IS A BIT MUDDIED – COULD HAVE BEEN A TAKEOVER THAT WENT WRONG OR THAT THEY SIMPLY OVERPOWERED THE CREW AND DIVED THE AIRCRAFT – “POOR MAN’S BOMB/MISSILE”
· SECURITY CAN BE BREACHED – BROKEN BOTTLES FOR EXAMPLE MORE DANGEROUS THAN BOX CUTTERS AND ANY NUMBER OF IMPROVISED WEAPONS CAN BE MADE – FOR EXAMPLE, THE TITANIUM ALLOY FRAME OF A WHEELIE BAG CAN BE SHARPENED INTO A SWORD VERY EASILY AND CONCEALED BACK WITHIN THE BAG UNTIL REMOVED.
· BLACK BOXES CAN TELL US IF THERE WAS A FAULT ON BOARD
· Tu black boxes now at international standards, adequate channels. The -154 had come out of a Form 4 overhaul – virtually a total rebuild, on August 10th. Therefore technical problem unlikely.
·
The TU 134 not so good. Lat Major OH completed in February 1996, although aircraft had flown just 65% of Time since MOH
POSSIBLE MOTIVE IS PRESENT – ELECTIONS IN CHECHYA IN 4 DAYS
PRESIDENT AKHMED KADYROV ASSASSINATED THIS YEAR
MAJOR REBEL ACTIVITY IN GROZNY THIS WEEK
PUTIN IN SOCHI
WITNESS REPORTS
WITNESSES NOTORIOUSLY UNRELIABLE AT THIS STAGE
SO ON BALANCE LOOKS LIKE TOO MUCH OF A CO-INCENDENCE TO BE OTHER THAN SOME FORM OF ATTACK ON THE AIRCRAFT.
Was it just the 134, I’d be inclined to look hard at tech failure, but a 154 just out of major makes this seem very unlikely.
They are also looking at fuel contamination, but Sibir has more than 50 flights per day from Domodedovo, so why only 2 aircraft with something so seriously wrong that no pans given. In any event fuel contamination causes poor running or flameout which is not a major problem – many aircraft have landed “dead stick” over the years and all major systems keep running certainly the VHF radio which would allow the crew to inform the ground.
It’s also much too early to exclude almost anything – even terrorism.
Good luck tiday!