One of the things that my studies have shown is a marked (and early) differentiation between the low cost carriers.
If you go back just a few years, your choices for flying around Europe were pretty limited -
- Major carrier (BA, AF, LH etc)
- Second tier (BD, Air Inter etc)
- Charter
What we have seen develop quickly is a three tier low-cost sector - with increasing blurring between the tiers:
- Major carrier (BA, AF, LH etc)
- Second tier (BD, Air Inter etc)
- Charter
- Wannabe low cost (eg flybe)
- Quality low cost (Go, easyJet, bmiBaby)
- Bargain basement (Ryanair)
My take on this is that there will always be space in the market for the lowest price. Ryanair are therefore pretty secure (barring, god forbid, any accidents, but that applies equally across the industry)
The qualities, I think, will start pushing more and more upmarket, as an air ticket becomes a more and more commoditized product. I think you will see a major squeeze on the wannabes and the second tier carriers, making the likes of flybe and bmi mainline more vulnerable than they would like to believe. I think you are also going to see a scrap in the quality section - but not for a few years yet; they will have enough on their plates as they improve the product and take on more and more of the established players.
So - short term, I'd be worried for flybe (their niche status won't help them, the locos have proved adept at developing the most unlikely bases and city pairs - Bournemouth to Hahn, Cardiff to Prague!!?!) and the likes of bmi regional.
Medium term - there will be a cleaning out of the quality sector - likely to be by acquisition and withdrawal, rather than bankruptcy - although acquisition has been an issue - easy still seem to have major indigestion with Go (the best loco by far, for all sorts of reasons - well done to BC, my role model!), and I can't see any of them swallowing up any of the others without pain. Jet2 is pretty vulnerable I would guess, due to its size.... they will disappear smallest first.
Barbara Cassani's comment (is that really you??) about easyJet not being as secure as you'd think may well be true. They are building capacity at a phenomenal rate, and I have seen loads of businesses going tango-uniform like this. Hope that RW knows what he is doing, but at $50 a barrel for oil, he may be in for a tough time.
Ryanair is already showing signs of going a bit upmarket (no, don't laugh) - but provided they stick with their strategy of "never undersold" they will be fine.
The likes of Wizz should be fine - for a bit - since they are on virgin territory to a large degree. I tend to agree about ThomsonFly, who seem to have an identity crisis (charter or loco?) and MyTravelLite (who again seem to want to be charter when it suits them).
TA