its easy, this is how it works.
... except that isn't how it works (out there in the big wide world, at any rate).
It works like this.
To succeed, an airline needs two things: high load factors and good yields. What the rest of the world has learned (but NZ airlines will probably never learn), is that the key to a successful operation is to stimulate the market by offering more capacity at lower prices. In other words, the low-cost model. It really works.
Of course what Air Nelson will do is go for a smaller aircraft (one that they can be sure of filling), and sadly that is the sort of unimaginative thinking that will mire them forever in 36-seat land.
You can make a hell of a lot more money by using a more economical, larger aircraft, and adjusting the yield on the fly. It is extremely difficult to make much using such a limited seat capacity - it is an inefficent way of working.
The argument regarding cabin crew is spurious, as the extra pax will more than pay for the extra hostie.
Similarly, the argument about mergers is irrelevant; they are all essentially the same company in any case, there isn't that much devolved power in any of the Air NZ-linked companies. The whisper I hear is that Air NZ is about to start consolidating their recruitment across the entire group - one of their problems is the disparate way the companies are managed.
But I'm sure you are right. Air Nelson will take a conservative approach, essentially denying themselves the ability to generate much new business, and keeping the NZ regional airline market stuck firmly in the 1980's. Air NZ will drive that decision.
My point was not what WILL happen, but what SHOULD happen...
I must say, though, that is a depressing thought, knowing the best you may manage in your career is an ATR, 340 or baby Dash.