PandaK
Do you REALLY think Airbus can break even on 250 airframes? If it is true then Airbus really isn't a business and just a state runs jobs excersize
If you do the math we will assume it was 10 billion dollars to develope the 380 (airbus has admitted a number much higher than that, plus the factory and everything else, but its easy numbers to crunch)
Assuming that the interest rate is zero for the money they have borrowed (which it effectively is which is GROSSLY unfair) 40 million dollars of every aircraft goes to paying back the loans. That is before you hang an engine, paint it, install the cockpit or anything else.
As Airbus is listing the aircraft for about 200 million, do you really think it only costs 160 million dollars to build? Now bear in mind those 129 sold aircraft which includes options (about the same number of airframes and customers as the concord at this state of developement I might add)
Now, imagine if Airbus was a legitamately run capitalist enterprise instead of a Euro jobs program that actually had to go out and borrow money (and can't easily divert it from other programs because of SEC laws). Think about how much interest would go into each airframe as well. About an additional 100 million dollars....
Notso,
The revolution of the 747s was not it SIZE. That was a byproduct of the true revolution of the 747 which was its range. 30 years later out of the 1200 or so 747s sold, only 300 of them were bought for their capacity (and many of these in Japan).
Just because you CAN fill an airplane during the summer doesn't mean you can do it year around. You can crush your yeilds by flying aircraft that are too large the rest of the year. The problem is that you need reliable heavy traffic all year around.
Is there a market for the A380? Yep. Is it vast. Nope....
Fragmentation is coming on longer routes too... Don't believe me? No one believed it on the shorter routes either. DC-10s were mostly for the domestic use market. they actually have lower seat mile costs than a 737 if you fill them. Yet southwest flies between dallas and Houston 39 times a day! That is somethign AA used to do with a DC-10 at one point! Southwest gets two things out of that. The ability to shift resources around and a steadyu consistant load factor. they don't have a flight that is empty. If the flight is empty the move the equptment somewhere else. The passenger gets the unbelievable convienience of going any time they want...
Southwest could fly bigger aircraft and drive their seat mile costs WAY down. They would trash their yeild and lose a lot of flexibility, and offer less convienience for their pax...
Cheers
Wino